Columbus Blue Jackets at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists2
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:19Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (30), Sean Walker (4)1–4
- P217:16Jordan Martinook Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Staal (8), Dmitry Orlov (12)1–3
- P215:52Dmitri Voronkov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (18), Ivan Provorov (9)1–2
- P119:08William Carrier Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (7), Jordan Martinook (8)0–2
- P18:28Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:28Sebastian Aho Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (11)CBJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 73% → 84% +11CAR 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P119:08William Carrier Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jordan Staal (7), Jordan Martinook (8)CBJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 84% → 92% +8CAR 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P215:52Dmitri Voronkov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (18), Ivan Provorov (9)CBJ 1 – 2 CAR · CBJ 6% → 16% +10CBJ 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P217:16Jordan Martinook Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Staal (8), Dmitry Orlov (12)CBJ 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 84% → 94% +10CAR 84% → 94%+10 pts
- P36:19Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (30), Sean Walker (4)CBJ 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +3CAR 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 75%
- ML CBJ +280 / CAR -360
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 70.7%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -297
- CBJ +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.5 – 4.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −11 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CAR: Dustin Tokarski (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +153 Elo | CAR 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 73.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 73.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 56.3%1st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 324–11 | Road vs home | 11–45th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–14 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–10 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.