San Jose Sharks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Jack RoslovicAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:21Jalen Chatfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P34:11Brent Burns Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (23), Martin Necas (29)2–2
- P211:44Luke Kunin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (19)2–1
- P118:51Luke Kunin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (8), Cody Ceci (6)1–1
- P14:26Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (4), Jack Roslovic (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:26Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (4), Jack Roslovic (4)SJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 79% → 88% +9CAR 79% → 88%+9 pts
- P118:51Luke Kunin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (8), Cody Ceci (6)SJ 1 – 1 CAR · SJ 13% → 24% +11SJ 13% → 24%+11 pts
- P211:44Luke Kunin Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (19)SJ 2 – 1 CAR · SJ 28% → 48% +20SJ 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P34:11Brent Burns Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (23), Martin Necas (29)SJ 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 39% → 67% +28CAR 39% → 67%+28 pts
- P317:21Jalen Chatfield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 57% → 97% +40CAR 57% → 97%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- CAR 80%
- ML SJ +380 / CAR -550
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 76.4%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -406
- SJ +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.3 – 4.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +7 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +204 Elo | CAR 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 80.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.74th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.76th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.7% | Shot share | 56.2%1st of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.8%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 324–13 | Road vs home | 10–33rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–11 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 14–11 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.