Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Nick CousinsAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints2
HurricanesScoring summary
- P319:13Shane Pinto Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (5), Michael Amadio (6)3–0
- P314:45Nick Jensen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (4)2–0
- P24:04Shane Pinto Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (5), Nick Jensen (11)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:04Shane Pinto Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (5), Nick Jensen (11)OTT 1 – 0 CAR · OTT 39% → 57% +19OTT 39% → 57%+19 pts
- P314:45Nick Jensen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (4)OTT 2 – 0 CAR · OTT 87% → >99% +12OTT 87% → >99%+12 pts
- P319:13Shane Pinto Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (5), Michael Amadio (6)OTT 3 – 0 CAR · OTT >99% → 100% +0OTT >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML OTT +170 / CAR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 65.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -180
- OTT +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +7 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +114 Elo | CAR 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 56.2%1st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 26th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 11–32nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–17 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 0–4 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.