New Jersey Devils at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists1
- Brenden DillonPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:44Jesper Bratt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (28)4–1
- P310:28Jordan Kyrou Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (8), Brayden Schenn (12)3–1
- P33:38Brenden Dillon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P213:09Stefan Noesen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (13), Jack Hughes (27)2–0
- P115:13Ondrej Palat Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (10), Brett Pesce (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:13Ondrej Palat Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (10), Brett Pesce (4)NJ 1 – 0 STL · NJ 61% → 76% +15NJ 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P213:09Stefan Noesen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (13), Jack Hughes (27)NJ 2 – 0 STL · NJ 78% → 90% +13NJ 78% → 90%+13 pts
- P33:38Brenden Dillon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 0 STL · NJ 94% → 99% +5NJ 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P310:28Jordan Kyrou Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (8), Brayden Schenn (12)NJ 3 – 1 STL · STL <1% → 3% +2STL <1% → 3%+2 pts
- P316:44Jesper Bratt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (28)NJ 4 – 1 STL · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 62%
- ML NJ -185 / STL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- NJ: Elo 50.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 2.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | 0 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ 0 Elo | NJ 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.7% | Shot share | 47.2%27th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3210–4 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–17 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.