St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:31Matt Duchene Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (9), Jason Robertson (12)1–2
- P22:39Jason Robertson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (12), Roope Hintz (6)1–1
- P19:08Jordan Kyrou Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (16), Pavel Buchnevich (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:08Jordan Kyrou Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (16), Pavel Buchnevich (13)STL 1 – 0 DAL · STL 34% → 49% +15STL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P22:39Jason Robertson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (12), Roope Hintz (6)STL 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 46% → 64% +18DAL 46% → 64%+18 pts
- OT2:31Matt Duchene Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (9), Jason Robertson (12)STL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 97% +43DAL 54% → 97%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 67%
- ML STL +195 / DAL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.6%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -206
- STL +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.2 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +97 Elo | DAL 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 10th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 11–21st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–13 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 11–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.