San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Nikolai KovalenkoAssists3
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Jake NeighboursAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Scoring summary
- P37:57Jordan Kyrou Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (12), Robert Thomas (15)4–3
- P36:01Jake Walman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (7), Nico Sturm (5)4–2
- P35:34Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (6), Jake Neighbours (6)3–2
- P219:53Macklin Celebrini Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (21), Jake Walman (17)3–1
- P25:43Macklin Celebrini Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (3), Nikolai Kovalenko (6)2–1
- P110:26Jake Neighbours Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (6), Colton Parayko (11)1–1
- P11:21Tyler Toffoli Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (9), Nikolai Kovalenko (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:43Macklin Celebrini Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (3), Nikolai Kovalenko (6)SJ 2 – 1 STL · SJ 41% → 60% +19SJ 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P219:53Macklin Celebrini Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (21), Jake Walman (17)SJ 3 – 1 STL · SJ 67% → 86% +19SJ 67% → 86%+19 pts
- P35:34Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (6), Jake Neighbours (6)SJ 3 – 2 STL · STL 9% → 28% +19STL 9% → 28%+19 pts
- P36:01Jake Walman Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (7), Nico Sturm (5)SJ 4 – 2 STL · SJ 73% → 91% +19SJ 73% → 91%+19 pts
- P37:57Jordan Kyrou Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (12), Robert Thomas (15)SJ 4 – 3 STL · STL 7% → 25% +18STL 7% → 25%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 62%
- ML SJ +155 / STL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- STL: Elo 66.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +122 Elo | STL 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.6% | Shot share | 48.1%27th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 31st of 324–14 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–11 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.