St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:40Dylan Holloway Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (14)4–3
- P318:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (18), Brock Boeser (11)3–3
- P218:32Elias Pettersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (10), Conor Garland (17)3–2
- P216:18Jordan Kyrou Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (13), Justin Faulk (7)3–1
- P117:30Robert Thomas Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (10), Pavel Buchnevich (11)2–1
- P19:15Zack Bolduc Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (9)1–1
- P18:02Dakota Joshua Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (16), Tyler Myers (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:30Robert Thomas Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Parayko (10), Pavel Buchnevich (11)STL 2 – 1 VAN · STL 41% → 58% +17STL 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P216:18Jordan Kyrou Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (13), Justin Faulk (7)STL 3 – 1 VAN · STL 66% → 84% +18STL 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P218:32Elias Pettersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (10), Conor Garland (17)STL 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 14% → 33% +18VAN 14% → 33%+18 pts
- P318:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (18), Brock Boeser (11)STL 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 2% → 52% +50VAN 2% → 52%+50 pts
- OT1:40Dylan Holloway Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (14)STL 4 – 3 VAN · STL 47% → 93% +46STL 47% → 93%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 61%
- ML STL +145 / VAN -170
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 61.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- VAN -154
- STL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +14 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +79 Elo | VAN 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 48.4%25th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 10th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 4–932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–12 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–1 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.