Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Stars- Lian BichselGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Lian BichselPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:47Zachary L'Heureux Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (10), Gustav Nyquist (5)4–1
- P310:34Lian Bichsel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (9), Jamie Benn (11)3–1
- P214:39Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Gravel (1)3–0
- P213:33Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (10), Steven Stamkos (8)2–0
- P211:40Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (9), Adam Wilsby (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:40Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (9), Adam Wilsby (1)NSH 1 – 0 DAL · NSH 40% → 60% +21NSH 40% → 60%+21 pts
- P213:33Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (10), Steven Stamkos (8)NSH 2 – 0 DAL · NSH 62% → 80% +19NSH 62% → 80%+19 pts
- P214:39Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Gravel (1)NSH 3 – 0 DAL · NSH 81% → 92% +12NSH 81% → 92%+12 pts
- P310:34Lian Bichsel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (9), Jamie Benn (11)NSH 3 – 1 DAL · DAL <1% → 5% +4DAL <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P316:47Zachary L'Heureux Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (10), Gustav Nyquist (5)NSH 4 – 1 DAL · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 65%
- ML NSH +175 / DAL -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -186
- NSH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 3.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +4 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +127 Elo | DAL 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.2 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 52.4%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–13 | Road vs home | 11–11st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–17 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–20 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.