New York Rangers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:37Will Cuylle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (12), Filip Chytil (6)2–3
- P310:18Brett Berard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P210:28Robert Thomas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P26:33Jordan Kyrou Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (4), Brayden Schenn (11)0–2
- P118:51Pavel Buchnevich Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (7), Robert Thomas (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:51Pavel Buchnevich Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (7), Robert Thomas (17)NYR 0 – 1 STL · STL 47% → 65% +17STL 47% → 65%+17 pts
- P26:33Jordan Kyrou Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (4), Brayden Schenn (11)NYR 0 – 2 STL · STL 67% → 82% +15STL 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P210:28Robert Thomas Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 3 STL · STL 84% → 93% +10STL 84% → 93%+10 pts
- P310:18Brett Berard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 1 – 3 STL · NYR <1% → 4% +3NYR <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P311:37Will Cuylle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (12), Filip Chytil (6)NYR 2 – 3 STL · NYR 3% → 17% +14NYR 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 53%
- ML NYR -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | STL and NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +1 Elo | NYR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 47.2%27th of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 8th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–19 | 18–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.