Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Warren FoegelePoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P212:17Filip Chytil Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Mancini (4), Artemi Panarin (21)5–1
- P25:04Phillip Danault Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (14), Akil Thomas (2)5–0
- P24:40Adrian Kempe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (26), Alex Turcotte (8)4–0
- P22:46Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (7), Mikey Anderson (6)3–0
- P115:06Warren Foegele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (9), Tanner Jeannot (3)2–0
- P17:05Alex Turcotte Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (15), Anze Kopitar (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:05Alex Turcotte Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (15), Anze Kopitar (25)LA 1 – 0 NYR · LA 48% → 63% +15LA 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P115:06Warren Foegele Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (9), Tanner Jeannot (3)LA 2 – 0 NYR · LA 65% → 79% +14LA 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P22:46Quinton Byfield Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (7), Mikey Anderson (6)LA 3 – 0 NYR · LA 81% → 91% +10LA 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P24:40Adrian Kempe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (26), Alex Turcotte (8)LA 4 – 0 NYR · LA 92% → 97% +5LA 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P25:04Phillip Danault Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (14), Akil Thomas (2)LA 5 – 0 NYR · LA 97% → >99% +2LA 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML LA +100 / NYR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- LA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −4 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +53 Elo | NYR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 19th of 327–9 | Road vs home | 7–819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–14 | 10–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–19 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.