Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast

FinalCAR leads series 3-1

Away

Hurricanes

47-30-5

5–2

at

Home

Devils

42-33-7

CAR 63%NJ 37%

You didn't pick this one.

Prudential Center · TBS, truTV, HBO Max, FanDuel SN South, MSGSN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.

NJ favored CAR favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3NJ50%CAR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Devils

Scoring summary

  • P316:43Andrei Svechnikov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (3), Sebastian Aho (4)5–2
  • P314:14Brent Burns Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: none4–2
  • P27:34Timo Meier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
  • P22:45Nico Hischier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ondrej Palat (2), Timo Meier (2)3–1
  • P20:42Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sebastian Aho (3)3–0
  • P19:47Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
  • P10:52Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (1), Jackson Blake (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P10:52Andrei Svechnikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (1), Jackson Blake (2)CAR 1 – 0 NJ · CAR 63% → 76% +13
  2. P19:47Jaccob Slavin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 0 NJ · CAR 76% → 86% +11
  3. P20:42Andrei Svechnikov Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Seth Jarvis (1), Sebastian Aho (3)CAR 3 – 0 NJ · CAR 88% → 95% +7
  4. P27:34Timo Meier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 11% → 23% +12
  5. P314:14Brent Burns Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: noneCAR 4 – 2 NJ · CAR 90% → >99% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Hurricanes 63%

SolidHit
CAR 63%NJ 37%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
CAR 63%
ML CAR -190 / NJ +160
Pre-line forecast
CAR 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CAR 52%
Ratings vs. market
−11.2 pts
CAR: Elo 51.8%, market 63.0%
Fair odds
CAR -170
NJ +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CAR 3.1 – 2.4 NJ
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCARNJWhy
Team rating15431491Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+4CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCAR +13 EloCAR 51.8%
Market-implied ratingsCAR 59.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCAR 58.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCAR 63.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils compared, with each team's league rank
CARStatNJ
10th of 323.2Goals scored3.020th of 32
10th of 322.8Goals allowed2.75th of 32
9th of 32+0.4Margin+0.213th of 32
1st of 3256.0%Shot share51.6%7th of 32
26th of 3289.3%Save percentage90.5%11th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
22nd of 3216–25Road vs home18–2227th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

HurricanesDevils
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCARNJ
Puck line39–4633–52
Last 103–72–8
Favorite36–4125–42
Underdog3–58–10
Overs–unders37–4833–52
Overs–unders, last 105–54–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CAR 7–3 NJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.