New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints1
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jordan Martinook (2)1–3
- P25:54Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (1)1–2
- P22:57Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (1), Sebastian Aho (1)1–1
- P13:51Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Dougie Hamilton (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:51Jesper Bratt Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Dougie Hamilton (1)NJ 1 – 0 CAR · NJ 30% → 44% +14NJ 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P22:57Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (1), Sebastian Aho (1)NJ 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 49% → 67% +18CAR 49% → 67%+18 pts
- P25:54Jordan Martinook Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (1)NJ 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 66% → 82% +15CAR 66% → 82%+15 pts
- P319:23Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jordan Martinook (2)NJ 1 – 3 CAR · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 71%
- ML NJ +230 / CAR -280
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.4%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -243
- NJ +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +81 Elo | CAR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 7th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–51 | 38–45 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 35–40 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 33–50 | 37–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–6 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.