New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan StaalAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:59Logan Stankoven Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (21)3–7
- P316:27Jordan Martinook Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (23)3–6
- P39:02Adam Fox Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (52), Vincent Trocheck (33)3–5
- P36:07J.T. Miller Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (32), Artemi Panarin (51)2–5
- P33:45Jordan Staal Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P219:43Will Cuylle Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (46)1–4
- P212:59Mark Jankowski Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (6), Tyson Jost (5)0–4
- P22:02Jackson Blake Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (34), Sebastian Aho (45)0–3
- P117:46Seth Jarvis Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (44), Jackson Blake (17)0–2
- P19:02Jalen Chatfield Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (21), Seth Jarvis (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:02Jalen Chatfield Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (21), Seth Jarvis (33)NYR 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 63% → 76% +14CAR 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P117:46Seth Jarvis Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (44), Jackson Blake (17)NYR 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 77% → 88% +11CAR 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P22:02Jackson Blake Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (34), Sebastian Aho (45)NYR 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 95% +7CAR 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P212:59Mark Jankowski Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: William Carrier (6), Tyson Jost (5)NYR 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 97% → >99% +2CAR 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P39:02Adam Fox Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (52), Vincent Trocheck (33)NYR 3 – 5 CAR · NYR <1% → 3% +3NYR <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML NYR +165 / CAR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 59.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- NYR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +70 Elo | CAR 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 56.1%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 3219–20 | Road vs home | 30–91st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–48 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–35 | 33–39 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 38–41 | 34–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–6 CAR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.
- Jan 28CAR 4 @ NYR 0Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Dec 22CAR 3 @ NYR 1Picked CAR 57%Hit
- Nov 27NYR 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 62%Hit
- May 16NYR 5 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Miss
- May 13CAR 4 @ NYR 1PlayoffsPicked NYR 55%Miss
- May 11NYR 3 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Hit
- May 9NYR 3 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Miss
- May 7CAR 3 @ NYR 4PlayoffsPicked NYR 55%Hit