Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:58JJ Peterka Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (22)0–3
- P216:45Alex Tuch Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (31), Ryan McLeod (30)0–2
- P21:32Tage Thompson Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:32Tage Thompson Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 35% → 52% +18BUF 35% → 52%+18 pts
- P216:45Alex Tuch Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (31), Ryan McLeod (30)CAR 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 61% → 81% +20BUF 61% → 81%+20 pts
- P31:58JJ Peterka Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (22)CAR 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 86% → 96% +10BUF 86% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML CAR -250 / BUF +210
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 53.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -221
- BUF +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.8 – 2.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +26 Elo | CAR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 49.1%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 20th of 3216–21 | Road vs home | 21–1615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–40 | 40–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–37 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders | 33–43 | 46–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.