Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals2
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints3
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:36Peyton Krebs Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (20)8–5
- P315:34Alex Tuch Goal (31) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (8)7–5
- P314:03Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (26), Dylan Strome (47)6–5
- P39:11Alex Ovechkin Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (24), Trevor van Riemsdyk (20)6–4
- P35:52Jack Quinn Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P31:28Tage Thompson Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (29), JJ Peterka (36)5–3
- P30:37Aliaksei Protas Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (29), Martin Fehérváry (19)4–3
- P211:52Sam Lafferty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor Clifton (13)4–2
- P25:17Alex Tuch Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Connor Clifton (12), Jason Zucker (28)3–2
- P22:46Jakob Chychrun Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P22:14Ryan McLeod Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (19), Owen Power (32)2–1
- P112:49Tage Thompson Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (26), JJ Peterka (35)1–1
- P110:06Jakob Chychrun Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (25), Dylan Strome (46)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:46Jakob Chychrun Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 50% → 68% +18WSH 50% → 68%+18 pts
- P25:17Alex Tuch Goal (30) Tip-In, assists: Connor Clifton (12), Jason Zucker (28)BUF 3 – 2 WSH · BUF 32% → 51% +19BUF 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P211:52Sam Lafferty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor Clifton (13)BUF 4 – 2 WSH · BUF 55% → 74% +20BUF 55% → 74%+20 pts
- P30:37Aliaksei Protas Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (29), Martin Fehérváry (19)BUF 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 17% → 38% +21WSH 17% → 38%+21 pts
- P31:28Tage Thompson Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (29), JJ Peterka (36)BUF 5 – 3 WSH · BUF 63% → 84% +21BUF 63% → 84%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 73%
- ML BUF +250 / WSH -310
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 72.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -265
- BUF +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +6 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +165 Elo | WSH 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 71.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–24 | Road vs home | 24–138th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–36 | 44–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 20–21 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 24–7 |
| Overs–unders | 43–29 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.