Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- John CarlsonAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00JJ Peterka Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P315:47Aliaksei Protas Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (23), Pierre-Luc Dubois (26)3–3
- P212:49Tage Thompson Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (23), JJ Peterka (20)2–3
- P211:29Tom Wilson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (17), John Carlson (22)2–2
- P21:07Alex Tuch Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P16:10Tom Wilson Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (17), Dylan Strome (33)1–1
- P14:42Alex Tuch Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: JJ Peterka (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:10Tom Wilson Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (17), Dylan Strome (33)WSH 1 – 1 BUF · WSH 43% → 59% +15WSH 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P21:07Alex Tuch Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 43% → 61% +18BUF 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P211:29Tom Wilson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (17), John Carlson (22)WSH 2 – 2 BUF · WSH 36% → 56% +21WSH 36% → 56%+21 pts
- P212:49Tage Thompson Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (23), JJ Peterka (20)WSH 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 44% → 65% +21BUF 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P315:47Aliaksei Protas Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (23), Pierre-Luc Dubois (26)WSH 3 – 3 BUF · WSH 9% → 52% +43WSH 9% → 52%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML WSH -160 / BUF +135
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -145
- BUF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 2.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | 0 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +25 Elo | WSH 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 48.1%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3213–6 | Road vs home | 7–1230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–14 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.