Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals3
- Tage ThompsonAssists3
- Jason ZuckerPoints4
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:48Devon Toews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–6
- P319:52Jonathan Drouin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50), Mikko Rantanen (34)5–5
- P317:34Cale Makar Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (49), Devon Toews (14)5–4
- P316:09Jason Zucker Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (15)5–3
- P34:17Mikko Rantanen Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (48), Casey Mittelstadt (17)4–3
- P31:27Zach Benson Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), JJ Peterka (17)4–2
- P31:05Ross Colton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (16)3–2
- P214:58Cale Makar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (5), Devon Toews (13)3–1
- P211:08Jason Zucker Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (14), Rasmus Dahlin (21)3–0
- P117:10Bowen Byram Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Jason Zucker (16), Dylan Cozens (12)2–0
- P113:17Jason Zucker Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jack Quinn (9), Tage Thompson (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:05Ross Colton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (16)BUF 3 – 2 COL · COL 14% → 33% +19COL 14% → 33%+19 pts
- P31:27Zach Benson Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), JJ Peterka (17)BUF 4 – 2 COL · BUF 67% → 87% +19BUF 67% → 87%+19 pts
- P34:17Mikko Rantanen Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (48), Casey Mittelstadt (17)BUF 4 – 3 COL · COL 11% → 30% +19COL 11% → 30%+19 pts
- P319:52Jonathan Drouin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50), Mikko Rantanen (34)BUF 5 – 5 COL · COL <1% → 51% +51COL <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:48Devon Toews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 5 – 6 COL · COL 54% → 93% +39COL 54% → 93%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML BUF +170 / COL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- COL: Elo 65.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -180
- BUF +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +113 Elo | COL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 68.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–20 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.