Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:08Brad Marchand Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (23), Charlie McAvoy (10)1–3
- P318:15Morgan Geekie Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (22), Mason Lohrei (13)1–2
- P218:23JJ Peterka Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (14)1–1
- P18:15Charlie Coyle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:15Charlie Coyle Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (7)BUF 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 61% → 75% +14BOS 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P218:23JJ Peterka Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (14)BUF 1 – 1 BOS · BUF 22% → 43% +21BUF 22% → 43%+21 pts
- P318:15Morgan Geekie Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (22), Mason Lohrei (13)BUF 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 52% → 99% +47BOS 52% → 99%+47 pts
- P319:08Brad Marchand Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (23), Charlie McAvoy (10)BUF 1 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BUF +150 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 66.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -159
- BUF +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −7 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +120 Elo | BOS 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.123rd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.623rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%26th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–10 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 32 |
| 24th of 325–8 | Road vs home | 9–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–18 | 10–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–15 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.