Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mark KastelicGoals1
- John BeecherAssists1
- Mark KastelicPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:04Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12), Leon Draisaitl (27)2–3
- P317:39Connor McDavid Goal (15) Poke, assists: Zach Hyman (6), Leon Draisaitl (26)2–2
- P211:17Zach Hyman Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (25)2–1
- P117:35Mark Kastelic Goal (4) Backhand, assists: John Beecher (6), Brandon Carlo (3)2–0
- P11:07Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (13), Charlie McAvoy (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:07Elias Lindholm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (13), Charlie McAvoy (9)BOS 1 – 0 EDM · BOS 38% → 52% +14BOS 38% → 52%+14 pts
- P117:35Mark Kastelic Goal (4) Backhand, assists: John Beecher (6), Brandon Carlo (3)BOS 2 – 0 EDM · BOS 57% → 73% +16BOS 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P211:17Zach Hyman Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (25)BOS 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 20% → 38% +18EDM 20% → 38%+18 pts
- P317:39Connor McDavid Goal (15) Poke, assists: Zach Hyman (6), Leon Draisaitl (26)BOS 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 4% → 52% +49EDM 4% → 52%+49 pts
- OT1:04Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12), Leon Draisaitl (27)BOS 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 53% → 93% +40EDM 53% → 93%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML BOS +155 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +79 Elo | EDM 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 55.1%2nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 13th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 9–814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–24 | 12–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.