Boston Bruins at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists3
- David PastrnakPoints4
Canucks- Max SassonGoals1
- Max SassonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:13Max Sasson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (13)5–1
- P30:26David Pastrnak Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7), Pavel Zacha (8)5–0
- P211:49Marc McLaughlin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (5)4–0
- P21:12Pavel Zacha Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (21), Morgan Geekie (6)3–0
- P18:08Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (20), Pavel Zacha (7)2–0
- P15:12Brad Marchand Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (11), David Pastrnak (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:12Brad Marchand Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (11), David Pastrnak (19)BOS 1 – 0 VAN · BOS 46% → 61% +15BOS 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P18:08Morgan Geekie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (20), Pavel Zacha (7)BOS 2 – 0 VAN · BOS 62% → 75% +14BOS 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P21:12Pavel Zacha Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (21), Morgan Geekie (6)BOS 3 – 0 VAN · BOS 79% → 90% +10BOS 79% → 90%+10 pts
- P211:49Marc McLaughlin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (5)BOS 4 – 0 VAN · BOS 94% → 98% +4BOS 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P30:26David Pastrnak Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Charlie McAvoy (7), Pavel Zacha (8)BOS 5 – 0 VAN · BOS >99% → >99% +1BOS >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML BOS +110 / VAN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- VAN: Elo 59.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +11 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +70 Elo | VAN 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 48.2%25th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%23rd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 20th of 326–8 | Road vs home | 5–1029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–23 | 13–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.