Florida Panthers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists2
- Teddy BluegerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:55Jake DeBrusk Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (27), J.T. Miller (12)0–4
- P24:53Brock Boeser Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (11), Quinn Hughes (26)0–3
- P118:41Danton Heinen Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Max Sasson (4), Teddy Blueger (9)0–2
- P12:23Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (3), Teddy Blueger (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:23Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (3), Teddy Blueger (8)FLA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 38% → 53% +15VAN 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P118:41Danton Heinen Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Max Sasson (4), Teddy Blueger (9)FLA 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 57% → 73% +16VAN 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P24:53Brock Boeser Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (11), Quinn Hughes (26)FLA 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 76% → 88% +12VAN 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P312:55Jake DeBrusk Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (27), J.T. Miller (12)FLA 0 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML FLA -180 / VAN +155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 52.3%, market 62.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -164
- VAN +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 2.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +16 Elo | FLA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 48.4%25th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 4–1032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–14 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–11 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 0–3 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.