Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalNHL Net, Scripps Sports

Away

Panthers

19-11-2

6–5

at

Home

Oilers

18-11-2

FLA 46%EDM 54%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Place · NHL Net, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored FLA favored11 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P313:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (14), Niko Mikkola (10)6–5
  • P38:02Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (6)5–5
  • P37:23Sam Reinhart Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none5–4
  • P36:53Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (13), Eetu Luostarinen (9)4–4
  • P217:55Gustav Forsling Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (12), Aaron Ekblad (14)3–4
  • P29:24Leon Draisaitl Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (30), Mattias Ekholm (10)2–4
  • P27:03Connor Brown Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (4)2–3
  • P26:20Zach Hyman Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (29), Leon Draisaitl (24)2–2
  • P119:32Matthew Tkachuk Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (16), Sam Reinhart (21)2–1
  • P115:13Zach Hyman Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (28), Evan Bouchard (17)1–1
  • P12:42Jesper Boqvist Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P26:20Zach Hyman Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (29), Leon Draisaitl (24)FLA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 34% → 53% +19
  2. P36:53Niko Mikkola Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (13), Eetu Luostarinen (9)FLA 4 – 4 EDM · FLA 20% → 48% +28
  3. P37:23Sam Reinhart Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 5 – 4 EDM · FLA 48% → 77% +29
  4. P38:02Kasperi Kapanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (6)FLA 5 – 5 EDM · EDM 22% → 52% +30
  5. P313:05Carter Verhaeghe Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (14), Niko Mikkola (10)FLA 6 – 5 EDM · FLA 49% → 85% +37

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 54%

Toss-upMiss
FLA 46%EDM 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 54%
ML FLA +110 / EDM -130
Pre-line forecast
EDM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 55%
Ratings vs. market
+1.1 pts
EDM: Elo 55.4%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
EDM -119
FLA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 2.6 – 2.9 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLAEDMWhy
Team rating15541561Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+5+1FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +38 EloEDM 55.4%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 51.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 52.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatEDM
5th of 323.5Goals scored3.211th of 32
24th of 323.2Goals allowed2.88th of 32
12th of 32+0.3Margin+0.410th of 32
4th of 3253.4%Shot share55.2%2nd of 32
27th of 3289.1%Save percentage89.8%22nd of 32
7th of 326–4Last 108–21st of 32
10th of 328–7Road vs home9–713th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLAEDM
Puck line15–1612–18
Last 105–56–4
Favorite10–159–17
Underdog5–13–1
Overs–unders18–1313–17
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 6–3 EDM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.