Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Scoring summary
- P31:38Jeff Skinner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (9), Darnell Nurse (12)3–6
- P31:00Brett Howden Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: none3–5
- P216:01Ivan Barbashev Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (11), Jack Eichel (31)2–5
- P215:35Victor Olofsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (13), Noah Hanifin (10)1–5
- P212:53Corey Perry Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (7), Derek Ryan (3)0–5
- P210:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (11), Mattias Janmark (12)0–4
- P26:53Connor Brown Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (23), Vasily Podkolzin (8)0–3
- P21:13Zach Hyman Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)0–2
- P117:36Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Leon Draisaitl (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:36Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Leon Draisaitl (22)VGK 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 57% → 73% +16EDM 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P21:13Zach Hyman Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)VGK 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 73% → 86% +13EDM 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P26:53Connor Brown Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (23), Vasily Podkolzin (8)VGK 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 87% → 95% +8EDM 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P31:00Brett Howden Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: noneVGK 3 – 5 EDM · VGK 2% → 8% +6VGK 2% → 8%+6 pts
- P31:38Jeff Skinner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (9), Darnell Nurse (12)VGK 3 – 6 EDM · EDM 92% → 98% +6EDM 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML VGK +130 / EDM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -138
- VGK +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +1 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +52 Elo | EDM 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.312th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 55.6%2nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 10th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 8–714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–12 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.