Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevPoints1
Jets- Nikita ChibrikovGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists1
- Nikita ChibrikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:47Ivan Barbashev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (21)3–2
- P318:11Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (17), Shea Theodore (20)2–2
- P310:55Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (4), Alex Iafallo (5)1–2
- P34:34Keegan Kolesar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:27Nikita Chibrikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (10), Cole Perfetti (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:27Nikita Chibrikov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (10), Cole Perfetti (13)VGK 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 53% → 68% +15WPG 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P34:34Keegan Kolesar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 1 – 1 WPG · VGK 22% → 48% +26VGK 22% → 48%+26 pts
- P310:55Josh Morrissey Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (4), Alex Iafallo (5)VGK 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 51% → 83% +32WPG 51% → 83%+32 pts
- P318:11Victor Olofsson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (17), Shea Theodore (20)VGK 2 – 2 WPG · VGK 2% → 49% +48VGK 2% → 49%+48 pts
- OT3:47Ivan Barbashev Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (21)VGK 3 – 2 WPG · VGK 50% → >99% +50VGK 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML VGK +105 / WPG -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- VGK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +9 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +63 Elo | WPG 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.75th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 92.0%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 11th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 10–34th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–12 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–12 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–0 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.