Edmonton Oilers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:26Derek Ryan Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Darnell Nurse (10), Connor Brown (6)7–1
- P36:55Troy Stecher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (9), Connor McDavid (26)6–1
- P215:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (16), Vasily Podkolzin (7)5–1
- P212:54Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (21), Evan Bouchard (15)4–1
- P21:55Connor Brown Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (11), Ty Emberson (3)3–1
- P118:48Frederick Gaudreau Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (12), Marcus Johansson (9)2–1
- P115:40Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Vasily Podkolzin (6)2–0
- P16:59Zach Hyman Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (19), Connor McDavid (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:59Zach Hyman Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (19), Connor McDavid (25)EDM 1 – 0 MIN · EDM 57% → 71% +14EDM 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P115:40Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Vasily Podkolzin (6)EDM 2 – 0 MIN · EDM 72% → 84% +12EDM 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P118:48Frederick Gaudreau Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (12), Marcus Johansson (9)EDM 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 15% → 28% +13MIN 15% → 28%+13 pts
- P21:55Connor Brown Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (11), Ty Emberson (3)EDM 3 – 1 MIN · EDM 73% → 86% +13EDM 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P212:54Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (21), Evan Bouchard (15)EDM 4 – 1 MIN · EDM 89% → 96% +7EDM 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML EDM -145 / MIN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 47.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -133
- MIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +9 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.7% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 7–48th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–18 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.