Minnesota Wild at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints3
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals2
- Dylan GuentherAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Backhand1–0
- P319:16Marco Rossi Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (8), Matt Boldy (16)4–4
- P311:45Juuso Valimaki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (2)3–4
- P39:54Clayton Keller Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (15), Mikhail Sergachev (13)3–3
- P35:39Marcus Johansson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P34:42Clayton Keller Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (12), Dylan Guenther (14)2–2
- P215:01Kirill Kaprizov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (7)2–1
- P214:25Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P113:46Kevin Stenlund Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (4), Olli Maatta (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P34:42Clayton Keller Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (12), Dylan Guenther (14)MIN 2 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 24% → 51% +27UTAH 24% → 51%+27 pts
- P35:39Marcus Johansson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneMIN 3 – 2 UTAH · MIN 49% → 77% +27MIN 49% → 77%+27 pts
- P39:54Clayton Keller Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (15), Mikhail Sergachev (13)MIN 3 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 19% → 50% +31UTAH 19% → 50%+31 pts
- P311:45Juuso Valimaki Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (2)MIN 3 – 4 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 84% +34UTAH 50% → 84%+34 pts
- P319:16Marco Rossi Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (8), Matt Boldy (16)MIN 4 – 4 UTAH · MIN <1% → 50% +50MIN <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 51%
- ML MIN -105 / UTAH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- UTAH: Elo 50.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +9 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +6 Elo | UTAH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.8%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 4th of 3211–5 | Road vs home | 4–726th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–13 | 17–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.