Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:17Mikael Backlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (10)0–3
- P219:05Blake Coleman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (6), Mikael Backlund (9)0–2
- P18:57Nazem Kadri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:57Nazem Kadri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 39% → 54% +16CGY 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P219:05Blake Coleman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (6), Mikael Backlund (9)FLA 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 67% → 85% +19CGY 67% → 85%+19 pts
- P36:17Mikael Backlund Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (10)FLA 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 92% → 98% +7CGY 92% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML FLA -185 / CGY +155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -166
- CGY +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 2.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +6 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +31 Elo | FLA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 50.1%13th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 9th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 10–57th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–15 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.