Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Andrew PeekeAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Flames- Ryan LombergGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:22David Pastrnak Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (8)4–3
- P36:51Marc McLaughlin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (12), Elias Lindholm (12)3–3
- P34:14Morgan Geekie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (6), Mason Lohrei (12)2–3
- P217:19Ryan Lomberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (10), Jakob Pelletier (2)1–3
- P26:31Elias Lindholm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P21:21Nazem Kadri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (11), Martin Pospisil (9)0–2
- P20:54Matt Coronato Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (8), Mikael Backlund (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:54Matt Coronato Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (8), Mikael Backlund (10)BOS 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 46% → 64% +18CGY 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P217:19Ryan Lomberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (10), Jakob Pelletier (2)BOS 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 70% → 87% +17CGY 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P34:14Morgan Geekie Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (6), Mason Lohrei (12)BOS 2 – 3 CGY · BOS 9% → 26% +17BOS 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P36:51Marc McLaughlin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (12), Elias Lindholm (12)BOS 3 – 3 CGY · BOS 24% → 52% +29BOS 24% → 52%+29 pts
- OT4:22David Pastrnak Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (8)BOS 4 – 3 CGY · BOS 51% → >99% +49BOS 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +10 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +12 Elo | CGY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.419th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 15th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 11–57th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–23 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.