Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- Jack QuinnPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals3
- Bobby McMannAssists2
- John TavaresPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:48John Tavares Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (7), Mitch Marner (31)3–5
- P213:51John Tavares Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (8), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10)3–4
- P212:41John Tavares Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (11), William Nylander (13)3–3
- P211:20Nicholas Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (3), Max Domi (7)3–2
- P29:11Jack Quinn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (12), Mattias Samuelsson (1)3–1
- P115:45Max Domi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Bobby McMann (2)2–1
- P12:46Alex Tuch Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (6), Tage Thompson (9)2–0
- P11:03Jack Quinn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (11), Bowen Byram (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:45Max Domi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Bobby McMann (2)BUF 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 28% → 44% +16TOR 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P29:11Jack Quinn Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (12), Mattias Samuelsson (1)BUF 3 – 1 TOR · BUF 61% → 79% +17BUF 61% → 79%+17 pts
- P211:20Nicholas Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (3), Max Domi (7)BUF 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 20% → 38% +18TOR 20% → 38%+18 pts
- P212:41John Tavares Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Auston Matthews (11), William Nylander (13)BUF 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 37% → 58% +21TOR 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P213:51John Tavares Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tanev (8), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10)BUF 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 58% → 78% +19TOR 58% → 78%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML BUF +155 / TOR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -166
- BUF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TOR and BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −24 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +77 Elo | TOR 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 20th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 13–44th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–15 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.