Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Jake McCabeAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints1
Red Wings- Jeff PetryGoals1
- Jeff PetryAssists1
- Jeff PetryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:58Lucas Raymond Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (12)2–4
- P31:51Jeff Petry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (11)2–3
- P31:07Matthew Knies Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (30), Jake McCabe (7)2–2
- P219:42Moritz Seider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6), Patrick Kane (8)1–2
- P211:40Auston Matthews Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (29), William Nylander (12)1–1
- P19:07Michael Rasmussen Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jeff Petry (4), Joe Veleno (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:07Michael Rasmussen Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jeff Petry (4), Joe Veleno (2)TOR 0 – 1 DET · DET 39% → 54% +16DET 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P211:40Auston Matthews Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (29), William Nylander (12)TOR 1 – 1 DET · TOR 38% → 59% +21TOR 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P219:42Moritz Seider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (6), Patrick Kane (8)TOR 1 – 2 DET · DET 43% → 67% +24DET 43% → 67%+24 pts
- P31:07Matthew Knies Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (30), Jake McCabe (7)TOR 2 – 2 DET · TOR 32% → 57% +25TOR 32% → 57%+25 pts
- P31:51Jeff Petry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (11)TOR 2 – 3 DET · DET 43% → 69% +26DET 43% → 69%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML TOR -185 / DET +155
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 2.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −19 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +20 Elo | TOR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 44.3%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 21st of 325–7 | Road vs home | 5–926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–13 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 17–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.