Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals2
- J.T. CompherAssists2
- Andrew CoppPoints2
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals2
- Peyton KrebsAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Dylan Larkin Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Backhand2–1
- P315:42Moritz Seider Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (19), Simon Edvinsson (10)5–5
- P310:27Andrew Copp Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (4), J.T. Compher (9)4–5
- P29:46Jason Zucker Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (8)3–5
- P22:26Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (4), Owen Power (14)3–4
- P21:05Lucas Raymond Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (11), Erik Gustafsson (5)3–3
- P115:26Jason Zucker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (6), Ryan McLeod (7)2–3
- P110:25Tage Thompson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (13)2–2
- P14:46Andrew Copp Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Compher (8), Moritz Seider (12)2–1
- P14:05Alex DeBrincat Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Dylan Larkin (10)1–1
- P11:38Zach Benson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (7), Peyton Krebs (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:25Tage Thompson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (13)DET 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 37% → 53% +16BUF 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P115:26Jason Zucker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (6), Ryan McLeod (7)DET 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 53% → 69% +16BUF 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P21:05Lucas Raymond Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (11), Erik Gustafsson (5)DET 3 – 3 BUF · DET 30% → 47% +17DET 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P22:26Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (4), Owen Power (14)DET 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 53% → 70% +17BUF 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P315:42Moritz Seider Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (19), Simon Edvinsson (10)DET 5 – 5 BUF · DET 8% → 49% +41DET 8% → 49%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML DET +105 / BUF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | −16 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +40 Elo | BUF 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.9% | Shot share | 49.6%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–8 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–11 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–2 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.