Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Ben ChiarotGoals1
- Andrew CoppAssists1
- Ben ChiarotPoints1
Flyers- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:47Scott Laughton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (7)1–4
- P318:53Scott Laughton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (21), Noah Cates (5)1–3
- P316:07Ben Chiarot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (5), J.T. Compher (10)1–2
- P31:31Scott Laughton Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (20), Travis Sanheim (13)0–2
- P213:22Scott Laughton Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:22Scott Laughton Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: noneDET 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 51% → 72% +21PHI 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P31:31Scott Laughton Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (20), Travis Sanheim (13)DET 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 75% → 91% +16PHI 75% → 91%+16 pts
- P316:07Ben Chiarot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (5), J.T. Compher (10)DET 1 – 2 PHI · DET <1% → 7% +7DET <1% → 7%+7 pts
- P318:53Scott Laughton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (21), Noah Cates (5)DET 1 – 3 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:47Scott Laughton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (7)DET 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 100% → 100% +0PHI 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML DET +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +7 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +13 Elo | PHI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.4% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.4%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 326–8 | Road vs home | 6–923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–11 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 10–0 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.