Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jiri KulichGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals2
- John CarlsonAssists3
- John CarlsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:30Jakob Chychrun Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (20), Pierre-Luc Dubois (17)2–4
- P311:05Dylan Strome Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (19), Taylor Raddysh (9)2–3
- P27:24Jiri Kulich Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (13), Tage Thompson (8)2–2
- P25:11Tom Wilson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (11)1–2
- P117:09Tom Wilson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (18), Connor McMichael (12)1–1
- P11:36Jason Zucker Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Jordan Greenway (4), Ryan McLeod (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:36Jason Zucker Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Jordan Greenway (4), Ryan McLeod (9)BUF 1 – 0 WSH · BUF 37% → 52% +15BUF 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P117:09Tom Wilson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (18), Connor McMichael (12)BUF 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 44% → 61% +17WSH 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P25:11Tom Wilson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (11)BUF 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 60% → 77% +17WSH 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P27:24Jiri Kulich Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Bowen Byram (13), Tage Thompson (8)BUF 2 – 2 WSH · BUF 23% → 40% +17BUF 23% → 40%+17 pts
- P311:05Dylan Strome Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (19), Taylor Raddysh (9)BUF 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 55% → 86% +31WSH 55% → 86%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 63%
- ML BUF +160 / WSH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -170
- BUF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +7 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +92 Elo | WSH 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 63.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.31st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Road vs home | 8–610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–14 | 19–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.