Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- Max DomiPoints2
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists1
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:40William Nylander Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (16), Chris Tanev (9)6–3
- P311:56Owen Power Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (1), Mattias Samuelsson (2)5–3
- P215:56Mattias Samuelsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (17), JJ Peterka (14)5–2
- P210:47Max Pacioretty Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (15), John Tavares (15)5–1
- P24:27Max Domi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (4), Mitch Marner (34)4–1
- P22:22JJ Peterka Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (8), Connor Clifton (7)3–1
- P21:53Nicholas Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (14), Conor Timmins (6)3–0
- P16:05Auston Matthews Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (14), Mitch Marner (33)2–0
- P11:29Bobby McMann Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (8), Nicholas Robertson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:29Bobby McMann Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (8), Nicholas Robertson (3)TOR 1 – 0 BUF · TOR 58% → 72% +14TOR 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:05Auston Matthews Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (14), Mitch Marner (33)TOR 2 – 0 BUF · TOR 72% → 83% +11TOR 72% → 83%+11 pts
- P21:53Nicholas Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (14), Conor Timmins (6)TOR 3 – 0 BUF · TOR 86% → 94% +8TOR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P22:22JJ Peterka Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (8), Connor Clifton (7)TOR 3 – 1 BUF · BUF 6% → 14% +8BUF 6% → 14%+8 pts
- P24:27Max Domi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (4), Mitch Marner (34)TOR 4 – 1 BUF · TOR 87% → 94% +8TOR 87% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML TOR -155 / BUF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- BUF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +1 | TOR: Matt Murray (no track record yet) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 21st of 326–8 | Road vs home | 6–1131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–14 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.