Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- JJ PeterkaPoints1
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:15Josh Anderson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (8), Brendan Gallagher (7)1–6
- P210:55Patrik Laine Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (12), Lane Hutson (21)1–5
- P29:45Patrik Laine Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (21), Lane Hutson (20)1–4
- P25:54Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (11), David Savard (6)1–3
- P23:43Dylan Cozens Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (13), Owen Power (16)1–2
- P16:26Patrik Laine Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (20), Juraj Slafkovsky (14)0–2
- P10:19Joel Armia Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (11), Emil Heineman (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Joel Armia Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (11), Emil Heineman (4)BUF 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 60% +14MTL 46% → 60%+14 pts
- P16:26Patrik Laine Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (20), Juraj Slafkovsky (14)BUF 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 61% → 75% +14MTL 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P23:43Dylan Cozens Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (13), Owen Power (16)BUF 1 – 2 MTL · BUF 20% → 35% +15BUF 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P25:54Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (11), David Savard (6)BUF 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 66% → 81% +16MTL 66% → 81%+16 pts
- P29:45Patrik Laine Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (21), Lane Hutson (20)BUF 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 83% → 93% +10MTL 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 54%
- ML BUF -130 / MTL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 51.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +9 Elo | BUF 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.724th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.831st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 44.8%31st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–10 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 325–7 | Road vs home | 8–917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–16 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.