Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals3
- Matt GrzelcykAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints4
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:42Noel Acciari Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none9–2
- P314:20Matt Nieto Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (14), Blake Lizotte (4)8–2
- P311:56Bryan Rust Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none7–2
- P38:41Anthony Beauvillier Goal (8) Poke, assists: Cody Glass (6), Drew O'Connor (7)6–2
- P37:42Kris Letang Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (7), Rickard Rakell (9)5–2
- P34:40Rickard Rakell Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (8), Sidney Crosby (22)4–2
- P214:36Joel Armia Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (3), Jake Evans (10)3–2
- P213:27Bryan Rust Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (8), Sidney Crosby (21)3–1
- P210:03Bryan Rust Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20)2–1
- P14:18Rickard Rakell Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (8), Matt Grzelcyk (13)1–1
- P12:12Nick Suzuki Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Cole Caufield (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:18Rickard Rakell Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (8), Matt Grzelcyk (13)PIT 1 – 1 MTL · PIT 37% → 52% +15PIT 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P210:03Bryan Rust Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20)PIT 2 – 1 MTL · PIT 52% → 71% +20PIT 52% → 71%+20 pts
- P213:27Bryan Rust Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (8), Sidney Crosby (21)PIT 3 – 1 MTL · PIT 72% → 87% +15PIT 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P214:36Joel Armia Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Emil Heineman (3), Jake Evans (10)PIT 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 12% → 28% +15MTL 12% → 28%+15 pts
- P34:40Rickard Rakell Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (8), Sidney Crosby (22)PIT 4 – 2 MTL · PIT 77% → 93% +16PIT 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / MTL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +12 Elo | MTL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.9 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.829th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 44.7%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–9 | Road vs home | 8–816th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–17 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–0 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.