Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:08Mikko Rantanen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (36), Devon Toews (10)6–2
- P312:21Artturi Lehkonen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (24), Nathan MacKinnon (35)5–2
- P33:23Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (34)4–2
- P218:53Michael Bunting Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (17), Bryan Rust (7)3–2
- P27:21Cody Glass Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (19), Kris Letang (7)3–1
- P25:46Mikko Rantanen Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (6), Nathan MacKinnon (33)3–0
- P118:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (27)2–0
- P16:31Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (23), Devon Toews (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:31Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (23), Devon Toews (9)COL 1 – 0 PIT · COL 62% → 75% +14COL 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P118:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (27)COL 2 – 0 PIT · COL 76% → 87% +11COL 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P25:46Mikko Rantanen Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (6), Nathan MacKinnon (33)COL 3 – 0 PIT · COL 89% → 95% +7COL 89% → 95%+7 pts
- P218:53Michael Bunting Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (17), Bryan Rust (7)COL 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 8% → 21% +13PIT 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P33:23Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (34)COL 4 – 2 PIT · COL 80% → 94% +13COL 80% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML COL -185 / PIT +155
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- COL: Elo 52.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +20 Elo | COL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 47.8%27th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 7th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 8–815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–21 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–12 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.