Montreal Canadiens at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (6)2–4
- P38:00Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (7), Brendan Gallagher (6)2–3
- P26:26Kyle Connor Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (27), Gabriel Vilardi (11)1–3
- P116:40Adam Lowry Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (8), Dylan DeMelo (5)1–2
- P114:34Gabriel Vilardi Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (21), Josh Morrissey (26)1–1
- P17:48Lane Hutson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (14), Cole Caufield (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:48Lane Hutson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (14), Cole Caufield (10)MTL 1 – 0 WPG · MTL 33% → 48% +15MTL 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P114:34Gabriel Vilardi Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (21), Josh Morrissey (26)MTL 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 49% → 66% +16WPG 49% → 66%+16 pts
- P116:40Adam Lowry Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (8), Dylan DeMelo (5)MTL 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 65% → 80% +14WPG 65% → 80%+14 pts
- P26:26Kyle Connor Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (27), Gabriel Vilardi (11)MTL 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 80% → 91% +11WPG 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P38:00Josh Anderson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (7), Brendan Gallagher (6)MTL 2 – 3 WPG · MTL 3% → 15% +12MTL 3% → 15%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 68%
- ML MTL +200 / WPG -240
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 71.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -212
- MTL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.2 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +160 Elo | WPG 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 70.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3244.6% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 31st of 323–9 | Road vs home | 10–46th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–15 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–0 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.