Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- Nick RobertsonAssists1
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:17William Nylander Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (14)5–3
- P317:44Colin Blackwell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (4), Miro Heiskanen (11)4–3
- P211:01Bobby McMann Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (2)4–2
- P25:31Nicholas Robertson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P25:15William Nylander Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (12), Mitch Marner (32)2–2
- P20:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13), Jamie Benn (14)1–2
- P16:13Max Domi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (13)1–1
- P15:14Sam Steel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (7), Logan Stankoven (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:13Max Domi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (13)TOR 1 – 1 DAL · TOR 30% → 45% +15TOR 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P20:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13), Jamie Benn (14)TOR 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +17DAL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P25:15William Nylander Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (12), Mitch Marner (32)TOR 2 – 2 DAL · TOR 28% → 46% +18TOR 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P25:31Nicholas Robertson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 2 DAL · TOR 46% → 65% +19TOR 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P211:01Bobby McMann Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (2)TOR 4 – 2 DAL · TOR 67% → 83% +16TOR 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML TOR +115 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +4 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +77 Elo | DAL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.51st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 53.0%6th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325–8 | Road vs home | 13–21st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–14 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.