Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints1
Stars- Lian BichselGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:58Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (14)1–3
- P217:35Lian Bichsel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (13), Mavrik Bourque (4)1–2
- P213:28Roope Hintz Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (13), Wyatt Johnston (12)1–1
- P115:39Dylan Strome Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (12), Taylor Raddysh (10)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:39Dylan Strome Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jakob Chychrun (12), Taylor Raddysh (10)WSH 1 – 0 DAL · WSH 42% → 59% +17WSH 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P213:28Roope Hintz Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (13), Wyatt Johnston (12)WSH 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 35% → 56% +21DAL 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P217:35Lian Bichsel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (13), Mavrik Bourque (4)WSH 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 56% → 77% +21DAL 56% → 77%+21 pts
- P314:58Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (14)WSH 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 91% → >99% +9DAL 91% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML WSH +135 / DAL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 58.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +56 Elo | DAL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 53.1%6th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212–2 | Road vs home | 12–21st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–9 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.