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Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Altitude Sports

Away

Jets

27-11-1

2–5

at

Home

Avalanche

23-15-0

WPG 35%COL 65%

You didn't pick this one.

Ball Arena · ESPN+, Altitude Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored WPG favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • P319:53Ross Colton Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (4)2–5
  • P318:31Mikko Rantanen Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (47), Joel Kiviranta (3)2–4
  • P37:22Casey Mittelstadt Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (7), Jonathan Drouin (3)2–3
  • P218:32Gabriel Vilardi Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (6), Nino Niederreiter (10)2–2
  • P216:37Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (35), Logan O'Connor (6)1–2
  • P210:20Rasmus Kupari Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (3), Neal Pionk (22)1–1
  • P111:51Artturi Lehkonen Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (6), Samuel Girard (15)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:51Artturi Lehkonen Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (6), Samuel Girard (15)WPG 0 – 1 COL · COL 64% → 77% +14
  2. P210:20Rasmus Kupari Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (3), Neal Pionk (22)WPG 1 – 1 COL · WPG 21% → 39% +18
  3. P216:37Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (35), Logan O'Connor (6)WPG 1 – 2 COL · COL 60% → 80% +20
  4. P218:32Gabriel Vilardi Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (6), Nino Niederreiter (10)WPG 2 – 2 COL · WPG 20% → 41% +21
  5. P37:22Casey Mittelstadt Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (7), Jonathan Drouin (3)WPG 2 – 3 COL · COL 57% → 83% +26

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 65%

SolidHit
WPG 35%COL 65%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
COL 65%
ML WPG +175 / COL -210
Pre-line forecast
COL 64%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 59%
Ratings vs. market
−5.9 pts
COL: Elo 59.2%, market 65.1%
Fair odds
COL -186
WPG +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WPG 2.8 – 3.7 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWPGCOLWhy
Team rating15691542Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—WPG on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−27−1WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.68 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +65 EloCOL 59.2%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 65.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 63.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 65.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
WPGStatCOL
2nd of 323.7Goals scored3.47th of 32
1st of 322.4Goals allowed3.324th of 32
1st of 32+1.3Margin+0.114th of 32
18th of 3249.5%Shot share52.1%9th of 32
1st of 3292.3%Save percentage89.2%27th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 108–21st of 32
4th of 3213–7Road vs home9–817th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JetsAvalanche
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWPGCOL
Puck line21–1714–23
Last 106–47–3
Favorite16–1210–17
Underdog5–54–6
Overs–unders17–2120–17
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WPG 5–4 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.