Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Tim StutzlePoints1
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:19Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (4)2–4
- P39:47Gabriel Vilardi Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (19), Kyle Connor (27)2–3
- P215:01Mark Scheifele Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (18), Colin Miller (6)2–2
- P212:46Kyle Connor Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (22), Josh Morrissey (31)2–1
- P24:03Ridly Greig Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (15), Claude Giroux (15)2–0
- P110:40Tim Stützle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (22), Brady Tkachuk (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:40Tim Stützle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (22), Brady Tkachuk (18)OTT 1 – 0 WPG · OTT 40% → 56% +16OTT 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P24:03Ridly Greig Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (15), Claude Giroux (15)OTT 2 – 0 WPG · OTT 60% → 77% +17OTT 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P212:46Kyle Connor Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (22), Josh Morrissey (31)OTT 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 18% → 36% +18WPG 18% → 36%+18 pts
- P215:01Mark Scheifele Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (18), Colin Miller (6)OTT 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 35% → 57% +22WPG 35% → 57%+22 pts
- P39:47Gabriel Vilardi Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (19), Kyle Connor (27)OTT 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 54% → 84% +30WPG 54% → 84%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 61%
- ML OTT +145 / WPG -170
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 67.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -154
- OTT +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.4 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +10 | OTT: Mads Sogaard: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +130 Elo | WPG 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 16th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 12–44th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–20 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.