Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Nick CousinsGoals1
- Nick CousinsPoints1
Oilers- Adam HenriqueGoals1
- Mattias JanmarkAssists1
- Adam HenriquePoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:38Adam Henrique Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (13), Connor Brown (8)1–3
- P214:05Zach Hyman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (4), Leon Draisaitl (28)1–2
- P20:25Nick Cousins Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P114:26Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:26Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34)OTT 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 61% → 76% +15EDM 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P20:25Nick Cousins Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 1 EDM · OTT 24% → 40% +16OTT 24% → 40%+16 pts
- P214:05Zach Hyman Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (4), Leon Draisaitl (28)OTT 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 58% → 78% +20EDM 58% → 78%+20 pts
- P31:38Adam Henrique Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (13), Connor Brown (8)OTT 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 80% → 93% +13EDM 80% → 93%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML OTT +155 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -166
- OTT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | EDM and OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −2 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +83 Elo | EDM 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 55.3%2nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 13th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 11–812th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–19 | 12–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–2 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.