Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Shane PintoAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints3
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:15Jake Sanderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (28), Shane Pinto (3)5–4
- P315:10Brock Boeser Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pius Suter (8), Phillip Di Giuseppe (2)4–4
- P215:30Josh Norris Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (14), Jake Sanderson (18)4–3
- P213:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Quinn Hughes (32), Tyler Myers (7)3–3
- P24:24Shane Pinto Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (21), Jake Sanderson (17)3–2
- P119:42Quinn Hughes Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (18), J.T. Miller (14)2–2
- P118:04Brock Boeser Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (31), Phillip Di Giuseppe (1)2–1
- P116:22Shane Pinto Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (8), Nick Cousins (6)2–0
- P11:45Claude Giroux Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Chabot (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:24Shane Pinto Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (21), Jake Sanderson (17)OTT 3 – 2 VAN · OTT 47% → 65% +19OTT 47% → 65%+19 pts
- P213:36Jake DeBrusk Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Quinn Hughes (32), Tyler Myers (7)OTT 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 32% → 53% +21VAN 32% → 53%+21 pts
- P215:30Josh Norris Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (14), Jake Sanderson (18)OTT 4 – 3 VAN · OTT 47% → 69% +22OTT 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P315:10Brock Boeser Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Pius Suter (8), Phillip Di Giuseppe (2)OTT 4 – 4 VAN · VAN 10% → 51% +41VAN 10% → 51%+41 pts
- OT0:15Jake Sanderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (28), Shane Pinto (3)OTT 5 – 4 VAN · OTT 49% → 90% +41OTT 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 54%
- ML OTT +110 / VAN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 58.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -119
- OTT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen (no track record yet) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +62 Elo | VAN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 14th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–1130th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–19 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 0–3 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.