Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Kris LetangPoints1
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Brady Tkachuk Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (15)2–3
- P312:42Kris Letang Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P36:38Drake Batherson Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Thomas Chabot (13), Josh Norris (8)1–2
- P32:40Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Noel Acciari (4), Matt Grzelcyk (15)1–1
- P17:34Thomas Chabot Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (12), Adam Gaudette (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:34Thomas Chabot Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (12), Adam Gaudette (3)PIT 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 69% +15OTT 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P32:40Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Noel Acciari (4), Matt Grzelcyk (15)PIT 1 – 1 OTT · PIT 23% → 48% +25PIT 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P36:38Drake Batherson Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Thomas Chabot (13), Josh Norris (8)PIT 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 52% → 80% +27OTT 52% → 80%+27 pts
- P312:42Kris Letang Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 2 – 2 OTT · PIT 14% → 49% +35PIT 14% → 49%+35 pts
- OT1:46Brady Tkachuk Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (15)PIT 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 51% → 94% +43OTT 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML PIT +110 / OTT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 53.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +10 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +22 Elo | OTT 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 26th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 9–713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–17 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 0–3 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.