Vancouver Canucks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Utah HC- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Logan CooleyAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:48Mikhail Sergachev Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Logan Cooley (21)2–3
- P315:30Dylan Guenther Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Clayton Keller (19), Logan Cooley (20)2–2
- P39:02Clayton Keller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (20), Barrett Hayton (8)2–1
- P32:45Dakota Joshua Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (10), Quinn Hughes (30)2–0
- P212:39Danton Heinen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:39Danton Heinen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (29)VAN 1 – 0 UTAH · VAN 49% → 69% +21VAN 49% → 69%+21 pts
- P32:45Dakota Joshua Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (10), Quinn Hughes (30)VAN 2 – 0 UTAH · VAN 74% → 91% +17VAN 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P39:02Clayton Keller Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (20), Barrett Hayton (8)VAN 2 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 5% → 20% +16UTAH 5% → 20%+16 pts
- P315:30Dylan Guenther Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Clayton Keller (19), Logan Cooley (20)VAN 2 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 9% → 51% +41UTAH 9% → 51%+41 pts
- OT4:48Mikhail Sergachev Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Logan Cooley (21)VAN 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 50% → >99% +50UTAH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 52%
- ML VAN +100 / UTAH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- UTAH: Elo 51.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.7 – 2.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +13 Elo | UTAH 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–3 | Road vs home | 4–831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–16 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.