Utah Hockey Club at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Logan CooleyAssists2
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:16Clayton Keller Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (15), Nick Schmaltz (19)4–3
- P39:49Michael Carcone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (4), Alexander Kerfoot (7)3–3
- P35:00Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (8), Macklin Celebrini (10)2–3
- P218:52Nick Schmaltz Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (19), Clayton Keller (18)2–2
- P214:11Mikael Granlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (12), William Eklund (20)1–2
- P114:58Alexander Wennberg Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (1), Cody Ceci (7)1–1
- P17:27Dylan Guenther Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (18), Mikhail Sergachev (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:11Mikael Granlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (12), William Eklund (20)UTAH 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 41% → 63% +22SJ 41% → 63%+22 pts
- P218:52Nick Schmaltz Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (19), Clayton Keller (18)UTAH 2 – 2 SJ · UTAH 34% → 58% +24UTAH 34% → 58%+24 pts
- P35:00Fabian Zetterlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (8), Macklin Celebrini (10)UTAH 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 43% → 71% +28SJ 43% → 71%+28 pts
- P39:49Michael Carcone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (4), Alexander Kerfoot (7)UTAH 3 – 3 SJ · UTAH 23% → 55% +33UTAH 23% → 55%+33 pts
- P319:16Clayton Keller Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (15), Nick Schmaltz (19)UTAH 4 – 3 SJ · UTAH 51% → >99% +48UTAH 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 63%
- ML UTAH -190 / SJ +160
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- UTAH: Elo 60.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -170
- SJ +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −5 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +71 Elo | UTAH 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 46.1%29th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 10th of 329–8 | Road vs home | 6–721st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–11 | 21–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | — |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.