Utah Hockey Club at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Logan CooleyAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints3
AvalancheScoring summary
- P315:49Kevin Stenlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (3)4–1
- P315:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (11), Mikko Rantanen (25)3–1
- P29:52Dylan Guenther Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (18), Logan Cooley (17)3–0
- P28:05Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (16), Dylan Guenther (16)2–0
- P18:26Dylan Guenther Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (11), Ian Cole (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:26Dylan Guenther Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (11), Ian Cole (7)UTAH 1 – 0 COL · UTAH 39% → 54% +16UTAH 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P28:05Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (16), Dylan Guenther (16)UTAH 2 – 0 COL · UTAH 61% → 78% +17UTAH 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P29:52Dylan Guenther Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (18), Logan Cooley (17)UTAH 3 – 0 COL · UTAH 79% → 91% +12UTAH 79% → 91%+12 pts
- P315:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (11), Mikko Rantanen (25)UTAH 3 – 1 COL · COL <1% → <1% +1COL <1% → <1%+1 pts
- P315:49Kevin Stenlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (3)UTAH 4 – 1 COL · UTAH >99% → >99% +0UTAH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML UTAH +155 / COL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- COL: Elo 61.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -166
- UTAH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +78 Elo | COL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 52.6%8th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.2%30th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 12th of 328–8 | Road vs home | 7–716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–11 | 9–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.