Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Canucks- Kiefer SherwoodGoals3
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Kiefer SherwoodPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:14Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (29), Cale Makar (29)1–3
- P317:25Kiefer Sherwood Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (28)0–3
- P216:04Kiefer Sherwood Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P116:14Kiefer Sherwood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (8), Pius Suter (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:14Kiefer Sherwood Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (8), Pius Suter (7)COL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 46% → 62% +17VAN 46% → 62%+17 pts
- P216:04Kiefer Sherwood Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 69% → 86% +17VAN 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P317:25Kiefer Sherwood Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (28)COL 0 – 3 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:14Valeri Nichushkin Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (29), Cale Makar (29)COL 1 – 3 VAN · COL 0% → <1% +0COL 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 55%
- ML COL -135 / VAN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- COL: Elo 44.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- VAN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 2.6 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +8 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +38 Elo | VAN 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 48.0%26th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.4%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 32 |
| 7th of 3210–6 | Road vs home | 5–1132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 10–22 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–0 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.