Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Adam WilsbyAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Parker KellyAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:10Artturi Lehkonen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (28), Parker Kelly (5)2–5
- P318:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (28), Mikko Rantanen (27)2–4
- P315:08Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Adam Wilsby (2), Tommy Novak (2)2–3
- P313:03Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (11), Filip Forsberg (11)1–3
- P33:30Artturi Lehkonen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (37)0–3
- P218:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (26)0–2
- P211:32Ross Colton Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (15), Devon Toews (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:32Ross Colton Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (15), Devon Toews (12)NSH 0 – 1 COL · COL 57% → 76% +19COL 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P218:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (26)NSH 0 – 2 COL · COL 78% → 92% +14COL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P33:30Artturi Lehkonen Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (37)NSH 0 – 3 COL · COL 94% → 99% +5COL 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P315:08Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Adam Wilsby (2), Tommy Novak (2)NSH 2 – 3 COL · NSH <1% → 9% +8NSH <1% → 9%+8 pts
- P318:08Nathan MacKinnon Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (28), Mikko Rantanen (27)NSH 2 – 4 COL · COL 98% → >99% +2COL 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 60%
- ML NSH +140 / COL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- COL: Elo 60.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -149
- NSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +72 Elo | COL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.3 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 52.5%8th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323–13 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–17 | 9–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–21 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–2 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.